Earth system tipping points are a threat to Europe – how to get prepared?

A JRC policy brief outlines the need for anticipatory governance to prepare for widespread, cross-boundary, systemic risks resulting from the crossing of Earth system tipping points (ESTP).

As the world fastest warming continent, Europe is unprepared for the impacts of Earth tipping points being crossed. For instance, the melting of large ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica, a critical slow-down of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), would result in more profound, and cascading crises, compared to the individual extreme events currently affecting Europe.

Europe has a package of prevention policies in place, targeting climate change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions. However, these may not suffice to avoid the destabilisation that crossing of tipping systems will cause, and Europe needs anticipatory governance to face the threats of earth system tipping points.

The brief urges action across various EU policies, particularly those focused on climate adaptation and crisis preparedness, to address this pressing challenge. With initiatives such as the European Adaptation Plan and the EU Preparedness Union Strategy forthcoming, the brief offers timely guidance and encourages discussions on Earth system tipping points, in line with the Niinisto report’s vision to have Europe functioning under all circumstances. 

Earth system tipping points

Global efforts to limit climate change have so far been insufficient, with 2024 the first year warmer than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). To stay within the long-term Paris Agreement temperature goals of keeping temperature rise well below 2°C, action to cut greenhouse gas emissions needs to intensify.

Current scientific understanding highlights the increasing risk of crossing several Earth tipping points around 1.5°C, and failure to limit temperature rise could lead to various tipping points – critical thresholds where no matter what further action is taken, we cannot alter the path to an irreversible change, with global long-term and cross-border impacts.

The trespassing of tipping points could lead to accelerated sea level rise, disruption of major ecosystem services, more greenhouse gas emissions, compromised food security and health impacts, and social disruption.  

Anticipatory governance

Preparedness for crossing Earth tipping points starts with the monitoring of early warning signals, and the assessment of the socio-economic vulnerabilities and risks, according to the brief. Despite the remaining uncertainties on the timing of reaching tipping points and the projected impacts, Europe needs tailored assessments of individual tipping points-related risks. Due to their long timescales, multi-hazard, cross-boundary and systemic risk nature, risk and impact assessments of crossing tipping points go beyond conventional disaster and climate risk analysis, and adaptation solutions will be needed.

Better integration of tipping scenarios and interaction between biophysical and socio-economic models, and emerging foresight methods (i.e. scenario and storyline analysis) can help to overcome the current methodological challenges.

Regular climate-science updates to policymakers, provided by existing dissemination channels, need to include information on Earth system tipping points to align governance efforts with scientific advancements and ensure that policies remain adaptive. Integration of assessments of tipping points-related risks into the current EU climate and disaster risk governance frameworks is an essential step in advancing anticipatory governance. 

Background

The recommendations in the policy brief aim to inform EU and international policies to address the security blind spot of Earth system tipping points.

The brief is based on the conclusions of a recent workshop organised by JRC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of Oslo, with participation of the European Commission’s policy makers, scientists from the Earth System and socio-economic modelling domains, insurance and finance experts, the Earth Observation community, and several international organisations.