Bilprodusentene når ikke EUs klimamål

Eksperter i konsulentselskapet PA Consulting Group har undersøkt hvor bilprodusentene ligger i løypa i forhold til bilparkens utslippsnivå av CO₂ for 2015 og 2020.  EUs klimamål er at bilprodusentene skal ha hele sin bilpark under 95 gram CO₂ per kilometer innen 2020, men kun Renault, Toyota, PSA Peugeot Citroen og Fiat ser ut til å kunne nå dette målet. Bilprodusentene Volkswagen (Volkswagen, Audi og Skoda), BMW og Daimler (Mercedes) ser ikke ut til å nå målet, mens General Motors (Chevrolet, Buick, GMC og Cadillac), Nissan, Hyundai og Honda ser ut til å akkurat klare det hvis beregningene slår riktig til.

- De pågående forhandlingene mellom EU, regjeringer og bilprodusenter om hvordan man skal nå disse målene blir nå mer komplisert, og det spørs om de klarer å bli enige, sier PA Consulting Groups energiekspert i Norge, Lars Erik Maurud.

EU arbeider med et forslag kalt «super credits», som er et økonomisk insentiv for å få fortgang i produksjonen av hybrid- og elbiler. Foreløpig ser ikke dette tiltaket ut til å øke antall miljøvennlige biler i EU-område, noe undersøkelsen til PA Consulting Group også bekrefter.

- I Norge selges det nå rekordmange hybrid- og elbiler, men EU-landene henger et godt stykke etter når vi sammenligner i forhold til folketall, sier Maurud.

Maurud etterlyser nå flere initiativ hvis EU og regjeringer rundt om i Europa skal nå målet om utslipp av kun 95 gram CO₂ per kilometer innen 2020.

- Bilbransjen trenger flere insentiver som gjør det mer attraktivt å satse på elbiler og infrastruktur for å løse de tekniske utfordringene med slike biler. Alternativet er å justere målsettingen til en mer gradvis tilnærming og målsettingen endres til 2023, sier Maurud.

Tabellen under viser hele oversikten:

Data sources for our CO2 emission calculations in Europe:

Car sales / amount of cars registred in the European Union*:

Car sales data in Europe until 2012 from PWC Autofacts

Forecast until 2018 from PWC Autofacts

Forecast until 2020 done by PA expert knowledge estimations and trend analysis based on probability calculations

*European Union consists of the following countries used in our CO2 calculation: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Fleet weight per manufacturer:

Fleet weight data until 2012 from J.D. Power and Firstlightpr.com (JATO)

Forecast until 2020 done by PA expert knowledge estimations and trend analysis based on probability calculations and assumptions for future technical changes and portfolio fleet changes

CO2 Emissions per manufacturer:

CO2 fleet emissions per manufacturer data until 2012 from Jato Dynamics

Forecast until 2020 done by PA expert knowledge estimations, trend analysis and probability calculations based on the product portfolio mix (share of HEV, PHEV, E and gasoline and diesel engine cars) until 2012 and future estimations and forecastings of the development of the product portfolio mix until the 2020.

Who commissioned this? No one, PA Consulting Group has done this analysis independently from EU, national governments, NGOs or car makers as we produce and publish industry insights based on sector experience and client work

Why was this analysis done? For developing a point of view towards the still ongoing negotiations for the CO2 target realization in 2020, for showing the gap identified and necessary actions required, for painting a more realistic picture of possibility to achieve the CO2 target 2020 in-between strong views of European Commission and car industry (particularly with background of super credits and new test cycle debate)

How is it different to T&E’s report? PA assumptions / analysis incorporate average CO2 emissions, weight and cars sales per car maker as is until 2012 (based on given European test cycle) and projections for future weight development, product portfolio, share and increase of hybrid / plug-in hybrid / electric vehicle in fleet sold and car sales until 2020 – the calculation of all factors forecasting CO2 emission for 2020 has more influencing factors which we accounted for in the resulting CO2 ranking with absolute figures against specific targets per car maker in 2020 (not just percentages for emission reduction against the 95gCO2/km target)

Why is there no report? – we so far have calculated results based on a comprehensive excel model / tool which is PA proprietary insight, resulting in the CO2 ranking provided as table, the full report is still in development.

How was the analysis done? With the knowledge of the number of sold cars (gasoline, diesel, HEV, PHEV, E) per manufacturer, the fleet weight per manufacturer and the CO2 emissions until 2020, the future C02 emissions of the entire fleet per manufacturer could have been calculated and estimated.