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Surplus for Swedish central government in March 2021

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Surplus for Swedish central government in March 2021

Swedish central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 9.2 billion in March. The Debt Office's forecast was a deficit of SEK 22.1 billion. The higher than expected budget balance is in large part explained by payments of tax that should have taken place in February instead being made in March, as a consequence of technical problems at a framework agreement bank. The central government tax income was also higher than expected.

The primary balance was SEK 29 billion higher than the forecast. This was in large part due to taxes amounting to SEK 21 billion that should have been transferred to the Debt Office in February instead being transferred in March, due to technical problems at a framework agreement bank. Furthermore, tax income was approximately SEK 13 billion higher than forecasted. It was mainly payroll taxes, corporate tax and supplementary tax that were higher than expected. The higher income was partly counteracted by payments from government agencies being approximately SEK 5 billion higher than expected, including higher payments from the National Board of Health and Welfare, the Legal, Financial and Administrative Services Agency and the Swedish National Agency for Education.

The Debt Office’s net lending to government agencies etc. was SEK 4.2 billion lower than the forecast. This was to an equal extent explained by lower lending and higher deposits by a number of government agencies.

Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 1.9 billion higher than the forecast. This is primarily explained by lower currency gains than expected.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of March 2021, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 170.1 billion.

Central government debt amounted to SEK 1 239 billion at the end of March.

The outcome for April 2021 will be published on May 7 at 9.30 a.m.

New forecasts for 2021 and 2022 will be published on May 27 at 9.30 a.m.

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Budget balance and central government net borrowing requirement1
(SEK million) 
Outcome MarchForecast MarchDeviation MarchAcc.    Dev2Outcome 12-month
Budget balance9 218-22 06231 28025 500-170 098
Net borrowing requirement1-9 21822 062-31 280-25 500170 098
Primary balance3-1 59327 409-29 002-21 161193 201
Net lending to agencies etc.4-7 157-2 978-4 180-6 109-33 594
Interest payments on central government debt-467-2 3691 9021 77010 491
  - Interest on loans in SEK21-54656754013 149
  - Interest on loans in foreign currency-71-35-36-45-765
  - Realised currency gains and losses-417-1 7891 3711 275-1 893
1 The net borrowing requirement corresponds to the budget balance with opposite sign.
2 Sum of monthly forecast deviations since last forecast.
3 Net of the state's primary expenditure and income.
4 The net of government agencies etc. deposits and loans in the state’s internal bank. The net lending includes both current government operations and temporary occurrences which can be decided on short notice. The net lending affects the net borrowing requirement and central government debt, but are not covered by the Central government expenditure ceiling.

More data on the borrowing requirement and government debt:

https://www.riksgalden.se/en/statistics/statistics-on-central-government-borrowing/

The monthly outcome of the central government net borrowing requirement is included in the official statistics of Sweden.

The Debt Office published their latest forecast on the Swedish economy and central government borrowing on 24 February: Forecast and analysis 2021:1

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