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Surplus for Swedish central government in August 2020

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Surplus for Swedish central government in August 2020

Swedish central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 19.8 billion in August. The Debt Office's forecast was a deficit of SEK 26.7 billion. The difference is due to, among other things, tax income being higher than calculated and the fact that the turn over loss support to companies has not been used as expected.

The primary balance was SEK 45.2 billion higher than forecasted. Tax income were approximately SEK 12 billion higher than estimated. There is not yet any information on what taxes it´s about. The Debt Office had calculated that the payments for the turn over loss support to companies would amount to SEK 13 billion in August. The outcome was significantly lower, just under SEK 1 billion. Payments for short-term work allowance were SEK 5 billion lower than calculated and payments of local government grants SEK 5 billion lower than estimated. However, the extra grants to local governments were paid out already in July, which means that it is a redistribution between months.

The Debt Office’s net lending to government agencies etc. were SEK 0.8 billion lower than calculated.

Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 0.5 billion lower than forecasted.

The net borrowing requirement and chiefly the primary balance has developed in a significantly better way than the Debt Office expected as recently as May. The explanation is that economic development has been better than expected, which means that tax income have been higher and that some of the support measures introduced in the spring has not been used in the expected extent. New forecasts for 2020 and 2021, as well as a first forecast for 2022 will be published on October 21, at 09.30 a.m.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of August 2020, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 131.0 billion.

Central government debt amounted to SEK 1,181 billion at the end of August.

The outcome for September 2020 will be published on 7 October at 9.30 a.m.

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Budget balance and central government net borrowing requirement1 (SEK million)
Outcome AugustForecast AugustDeviation AugustAcc.    Dev2Outcome 12-month
Budget balance19 785-26 70446 489112 342-130 991
Net borrowing requirement1-19 78526 704-46 489-112 342130 991
Primary balance3 -14 685 30 543 -45 228 -104 889 123 911
Net lending to agencies etc.4 -3 407 -2 649 -758 -5 547 -6 592
Interest payments on central government debt -1 692 -1 189 -503 -1 905 13 673
  - Interest on loans in SEK -1 151 -1 146 -5 83 10 575
  - Interest on loans in foreign currency -11 -10 -2 -38 -540
  - Realised currency gains and losses -530 -33 -497 -1 951 3 638
1 The net borrowing requirement corresponds to the budget balance with opposite sign.
2 Sum of monthly forecast deviations since last forecast (May 2020).
3 Net of the state's primary expenditure and income.
4 The net of government agencies etc. deposits and loans in the state’s internal bank. The net lending includes
   both current government operations and temporary occurrences which can be decided on short notice. The net
   lending affects the net borrowing requirement and central government debt, but are not covered by the
   Central government expenditure ceiling.


More data on the borrowing requirement and government debt:

https://www.riksgalden.se/en/statistics/statistics-on-central-government-borrowing/

The monthly outcome of the central government net borrowing requirement is included in the official statistics of Sweden.

The Debt Office published their latest prognosis on the Swedish economy and central government borrowing on 19 May: Central Government borrowing 2020:2.

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