Deficit for Swedish central government in July 2020

Deficit for Swedish central government in July 2020

Swedish central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 34.4 billion in July. The Debt Office's forecast was a deficit of SEK 58.7 billion. The deviation is largely due to higher tax income than forecasted.

The primary balance was SEK 22.9 billion higher than forecasted. The difference can to a large extent be explained by tax income being approximately SEK 25 billion higher than estimated. Payments of corporate income tax were higher than expected in July. At the same time, payments from tax accounts were around SEK 16 billion lower than forecasted.

The payments from the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth were around SEK 9 billion lower than forecasted in July as a result of the agency’s responsibility for processing the allowances for short-time work. At the same time, payments to local governments were SEK 21 billion higher than forecasted. The higher payments to local governments was largely a redistribution between months. Approximately SEK 15 billion of these payments were forecasted to take place during other months in 2020. The payments from some other agencies were lower than forecasted.

The Debt Office’s net lending to government agencies etc. were approximately SEK 0.8 billion lower than forecasted.

Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 0.5 billion lower than forecasted.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of July 2020, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 120.7 billion.

Central government debt amounted to SEK 1 186 billion at the end of July.

The outcome for August 2020 will be published on 7 September at 9.30 a.m.

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Budget balance and central government net borrowing requirement1 (SEK million)
	Outcome July	Forecast July	Deviation July	Acc.  Dev2	Outcome 12-month
Budget balance	-34 433	-58 728	24 294	65 852	-120 704
Net borrowing requirement1	34 433	58 728	-24 294	-65 852	120 704
Primary balance3	40 493	63 416	-22 923	-59 661	114 031
Net lending to agencies etc.4	-4 320	-3 496	-825	-4 789	-8 811
Interest payments on central government debt	-1 739	-1 192	-547	-1 402	15 484
- Interest on loans in SEK	-663	-920	256	88	11 302
- Interest on loans in foreign currency	-40	-29	-11	-36	-635
- Realised currency gains and losses	-1 036	-243	-792	-1 454	4 816
1 The net borrowing requirement corresponds to the budget balance with opposite sign.
2 Sum of monthly forecast deviations since last forecast (May 2020).
3 Net of the state's primary expenditure and income.
4 The net of government agencies etc. deposits and loans in the state’s internal bank. The net lending includes
both current government operations and temporary occurrences which can be decided on short notice. The net
lending affects the net borrowing requirement and central government debt, but are not covered by the
Central government expenditure ceiling.

More data on the borrowing requirement and government debt:

https://www.riksgalden.se/en/statistics/statistics-on-central-government-borrowing/

The monthly outcome of the central government net borrowing requirement is included in the official statistics of Sweden.

The Debt Office published their latest prognosis on the Swedish economy and central government borrowing on 19 May: Central Government borrowing 2020:2.

Attachment

• Sweden’s central government debt July 2020

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