Treefera Launches Market Intelligence for Ag & Soft Commodities – Delivering Earlier Yield Signals and Quantified Forecast Confidence

AI-native intelligence gives traders earlier supply signals, quantified uncertainty and measurable information advantage

LONDON, Feb. 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Treefera, the AI-native first-mile intelligence platform for ag & soft commodities, today launched Market Intelligence, a new data product delivering yield and production area forecasts expressed as probabilistic ranges with quantified uncertainty, across seasonal and multi-year horizons.

In December 2025, Treefera forecast U.S. corn yield at 187.6 bushels per acre. The USDA’s final January 2026 estimate was 186.5 bushels per acre. Treefera’s forecast was within 1% of the final figure and was delivered as a probabilistic distribution four weeks ahead of consensus formation, demonstrating both accuracy and defensible forecast confidence.

That timing difference matters. Commodity markets often reprice on the back of government reports. Those reports are published on schedule, but they are compiled after real-world production conditions have already unfolded. By directly observing field-level signals through satellite data and applying AI-driven scientific production models, Treefera generates probabilistic supply forecasts that are aggregated into structured commodity-by-country datasets. These forecasts are expressed with quantified uncertainty, creating measurable information advantage in imperfect markets.

Built for Trading Decisions

Market Intelligence is purpose-built for ag & soft commodity traders, analysts and procurement teams who need earlier visibility into yield, planted area and supply shifts.

Treefera AI takes price discovery in ag & softs to the next level, leveraging deep learning models trained on single-crop ground truth data to:

• Detect crop-specific production areas with 92% accuracy
  
• Generate in-season yield forecasts with over 90% accuracy
  
• Update forecasts weekly as production conditions evolve
  

Unlike top-down survey models, Treefera builds forecasts from the field level upward. Millions of satellite observations, weather variables and biological growth indicators are processed at field scale and aggregated to produce structured commodity-by-country datasets. These outputs are delivered as quant-ready data feeds designed for ingestion, back-testing and integration into existing trading workflows.

Treefera’s Market Intelligence currently covers high-liquidity commodity-region pairings including U.S. corn, winter and spring wheat, sugar in India, cocoa in Ghana, coffee in Brazil and cattle across major producing regions. Active expansion is underway into additional regions and soy, palm oil, rice, cotton and natural rubber.

The Only Model Combining Crop-Specific Detection and Phenology-Aware Yield Weighting

Treefera’s yield model is differentiated by two core technical innovations:

1. Phenology-aware modelling
   Yield sensitivity is weighted toward critical growth windows, such as the VT–R1 tasselling and silking stage in corn. This avoids false bullish or bearish signals and aligns forecasts with how yield is biologically determined.
   
   
2. Single-crop canopy isolation
   Treefera isolates crop-specific canopy signals rather than relying on blended vegetation indices across multiple crops. The model is trained from the ground up using single-crop detection and crop-specific data.

This bottom-up approach produces two measurable advantages:

• Probabilistic forecasts with quantified uncertainty – delivering a range, not a single-point estimate, enabling traders to size positions according to confidence bands
• Lead time advantage – typically 4 weeks to 3 months ahead of other market sources, with the ability to forecast years in advance and increasing confidence as harvest approaches

Rather than reacting to consensus, teams can evaluate supply risk earlier, assess probability distributions and take positions with greater certainty.

Production Area Intelligence Before Official Reporting Cycles

Treefera’s deep learning crop detection models identify planted area shifts weeks or months before official statistics are published. Early visibility into production area changes materially impacts supply expectations, particularly in weather-sensitive markets and tree crops such as coffee and cocoa.

For tree crops and multi-year biological systems, forward modelling enables earlier structural supply assessment, supporting longer-dated positioning strategies.

Structured, Market-Ready Delivery

Clients receive weekly sub-regional yield and area datasets, five-year point-in-time hindcasts for signal validation and back-testing, and monthly intelligence reports explaining what changed, why it matters and the implications for supply and pricing.

Each release is supported by refreshed CSV datasets, clear data dictionaries and client-ready methodology notes - ensuring insights are actionable, defensible and ready for market use.

Replacing Lag with Measurable Edge

“In financial markets, risk is continuously modelled and uncertainty is explicit. In ag & soft commodities, markets still rely heavily on survey-based data compiled after the fact,” said Jonathan Horn, CEO and Founder of Treefera. “Our platform applies AI-native modelling to satellite observation and scientific production models, continuously assimilating new data to generate probabilistic supply forecasts with quantified uncertainty. That allows traders to assess risk rigorously and make capital allocation decisions with greater confidence ahead of consensus. The result is measurable information advantage in an imperfect market.”

Market Intelligence is available globally across leading ag & soft commodities, including corn, wheat, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cattle, with continued expansion into soy, palm oil, rice, cotton and natural rubber across key producing regions.

About Treefera:
Treefera is an AI-native first-mile intelligence platform focused on global ag & soft commodities. Through proprietary science and advanced AI modelling, Treefera synthesizes satellite imagery, environmental signals and field-level data into Market, Risk and Environmental Intelligence at plot resolution and in near real time. The platform converts first-mile conditions into financial-grade insight – replacing lagged, aggregated datasets with defensible intelligence from source. Headquartered in London with a global footprint, Treefera serves Trading, Financial Services, Supply Chain and Agriculture and Forestry organizations that depend on understanding risk and value where production begins. Learn more at https://www.treefera.com/ or follow us on LinkedIn.

Contact
V2 Communications for Treefera
treefera@v2comms.com