US election creates betting battlegrounds

SAN GILJAN, Malta, Sept. 16, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The race for the White House is intensifying and the battle to be able to offer Americans the chance to bet on the outcome is also being hard fought.

Analysis of betting odds from global sportsbook provider, Altenar, shows Kamala Harris now has a 55.9% chance of winning November’s election after her first televised debate with Donald Trump on Tuesday night.

Harris only had a 33.3% chance of victory on the day she was elected to succeed Joe Biden and represent the Democrats, but her performance in front of the cameras has seen her odds shortened while Trump’s price has drifted.

The election is shaping up to be one of the closest in the country’s history and it could also be the first in which American residents have been able to bet on the outcome, despite an attempted ban by a leading US regulator.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously taken steps to prevent election betting, claiming it would be “contrary to the public interest,” but this has been challenged in court by prediction market platform Kalshi, which hopes to list contracts on the outcome of the election and settle trades in dollars.

In what could prove to be an historic case, a judge in the District of Columbia backed the New York-based company’s stance, with Kalshi stating on its website: “We did it! US election markets are coming to Kalshi.”

Judge Jia Cobb is yet to publish her reasoning for the verdict and within hours there was another twist as the CFTC submitted an emergency 14-day motion appealing against the ruling.

As a CFTC-regulated prediction platform, there is significant interest in whether Kalshi is cleared in time to offer markets on November’s election. While election betting is permitted in many countries, the CFTC believes that relaxing the rules for US states “could harm public perception of election integrity.”

Supporters of Kalshi’s case believe betting through a regulated platform is the safer option for Americans than using foreign operators, with other platforms such as crypto-based Polymarket having built a large market share despite being banned from doing business with US residents.

Victory for Kalshi could pave the way for sportsbooks to be able to offer election odds in the future but, just as in the battle between Trump and Harris, there is still some way to go before the outcome is known.

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