Shell plc publishes third quarter 2023 press release
London, November 2, 2023
"Shell delivered another quarter of strong operational and financial performance, capturing opportunities in volatile commodity markets. We continue to simplify our portfolio while delivering more value with less emissions.
Shell is commencing a $3.5 billion buyback programme for the next three months, bringing the buybacks for the second half of 2023 to $6.5 billion, well in excess of the $5 billion announced at Capital Markets Day in June. This takes total announced shareholder distributions for 2023 to ~$23 billion."
Shell plc Chief Executive Officer,Wael Sawan
CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE, SUPPORTING ENHANCED DISTRIBUTIONS
- Q3 2023 Adjusted Earnings of $6.2 billion, reflecting robust operational performance and higher oil prices and refining margins. CFFO of $12.3 billion for the quarter, with a $0.4 billion working capital inflow, despite higher oil prices.
- Enhancing shareholder distributions with $3.5 billion share buybacks announced, expected to be completed by Q4 2023 results announcement. Total announced distributions for 2023 ~$23 billion, with dividend per share this quarter being 32% higher than in Q3 2022.
- Demonstrating capital discipline with cash capex outlook for 2023 of $23 - 25 billion.
|$ million||Adj. Earnings1||Adj. EBITDA1||CFFO||Cash capex|
|Sectors & Decarbonisation||38||106||163|
|Chemicals & Products||1,380||2,591||2,379||879|
|Renewables & Energy Solutions||(67)||79||(34)||659|
|Less: Non-controlling interest (NCI)||77|
1Income/(loss) attributable to shareholders for Q3 2023 is $7.0 billion. Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the unaudited results, available on www.shell.com/investors.
- CFFO of $12.3 billion for Q3 2023 includes a working capital inflow of $0.4 billion, with the impact of higher prices on inventory offset by favourable timing effects of accounts payable/receivable. Stable net debt, $40.5 billion at the end of Q3 2023.
|$ billion||Q3 2022||Q4 2022||Q1 2023||Q2 2023||Q3 2023|
|Free cash flow||7.5||15.5||9.9||12.1||7.5|
Q3 2023 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023||Q4 2023 outlook|
|Realised liquids price ($/bbl)||60||63||—|
|Realised gas price ($/mscf)||8||8||—|
|Production (kboe/d)||985||900||870 - 930|
|LNG liquefaction volumes (MT)||7.2||6.9||6.7 - 7.3|
|LNG sales volumes (MT)||16.0||16.0||—|
- Adjusted Earnings similar to Q2 2023, reflecting favourable trading and optimisation results combined with higher realised liquids prices offset by lower volumes. Trading and optimisation results were higher than in Q2 2023, benefiting from stable supply and capturing additional optimisation opportunities.
- Q4 2023 outlook reflects ongoing maintenance at Prelude and lower expected liquefaction volumes from Egypt.
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023||Q4 2023 outlook|
|Realised liquids price ($/bbl)||72||79||—|
|Realised gas price ($/mscf)*||7||7||—|
|Liquids production (kboe/d)||1,283||1,311||—|
|Gas production (mscf/d)||2,425||2,564||—|
|Total production (kboe/d)||1,701||1,753||1,750 - 1,950|
*With the completion of the 2022-2023 gas year at the end of September 2023, the Groningen gas field has been closed (subject to exceptional circumstances under which the Dutch government may instruct to re-open the field to a certain extent). Upstream realised gas prices have been restated for 2022 and 2023 to exclude the impact of GasTerra.
- Adjusted Earnings higher in Q3 2023 due to higher oil prices and higher production volumes. Production was higher, with strong performance in Deep Water.
- Q4 2023 production outlook reflects the closure of the Groningen gas field.
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023||Q4 2023 outlook|
|Marketing sales volumes (kb/d)||2,607||2,654||2,250 - 2,750|
|Sectors & Decarbonisation (kb/d)*||733||790||—|
*Comparative information has been revised - see Quarterly Databook
- Adjusted Earnings impacted by compressed fuels margins due to rising feedstock costs in Mobility, offset by improved margin performance in Sectors & Decarbonisation. Adjusted Earnings also reflect one-off tax charges.
CHEMICALS & PRODUCTS
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023||Q4 2023 outlook|
|Refining & Trading sales volumes (kb/d)||1,466||1,548||—|
|Chemicals sales volumes (kT)||2,828||2,998||—|
|Refinery utilisation (%)||85||84||75 - 83|
|Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation (%)||70||70||62 - 70|
|Global indicative refining margin ($/bbl)||9||16||—|
|Global indicative chemical margin ($/t)||153||115||—|
- Higher refining margins in Q3 2023 driven by lower global product supply combined with higher demand. Chemicals margins continue to be impacted by weak demand. Trading and optimisation margins are higher than in Q2 2023.
- Q4 2023 Refinery utilisation outlook lower than Q3 2023 due to planned maintenance activities in North America.
RENEWABLES & ENERGY SOLUTIONS
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023|
|External power sales (TWh)||67||76|
|Sales of natural gas to end-use customers (TWh)||172||170|
|Renewables power generation capacity*||7.1||7.4|
*Excluding Shell's equity share of associates where information cannot be obtained
- Adjusted Earnings are lower than in Q2 2023 mainly driven by lower margins due to seasonal impacts, primarily in Europe, and lower trading and optimisation results.
Renewables and Energy Solutions includes renewable power generation, the marketing and trading and optimisation of power and pipeline gas, as well as carbon credits, and digitally enabled customer solutions. It also includes the production and marketing of hydrogen, development of commercial carbon capture and storage hubs, investment in nature-based projects that avoid or reduce carbon emissions, and Shell Ventures, which invests in companies that work to accelerate the energy and mobility transformation.
|Key data||Q2 2023||Q3 2023||Q4 2023 outlook|
|Adjusted Earnings ($ billion)||(0.7)||(0.5)||(0.6) - (0.8)|
- The Adjusted Earnings outlook is a net expense of $2.8 - 3.0 billion for the full year 2023. This excludes the impact of currency exchange rate and fair value accounting effects.
UPCOMING INVESTOR EVENTS
|1 February 2024||Fourth quarter 2023 results and dividends|
|2 May 2024||First quarter 2024 results and dividends|
|1 August 2024||Second quarter 2024 results and dividends|
|31 October 2024||Third quarter 2024 results and dividends|
ALTERNATIVE PERFORMANCE (NON-GAAP) MEASURES
This announcement includes certain measures that are calculated and presented on the basis of methodologies other than in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) such as IFRS, including Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, CFFO excluding working capital movements, Cash capital expenditure, free cash flow, Divestment proceeds and Net debt. This information, along with comparable GAAP measures, is useful to investors because it provides a basis for measuring Shell plc’s operating performance and ability to retire debt and invest in new business opportunities. Shell plc’s management uses these financial measures, along with the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, in evaluating the business performance.
This announcement contains a forward-looking non-GAAP measure for cash capital expenditure and divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of this forward-looking non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure because certain information needed to reconcile the non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measure with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are estimated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc’s consolidated financial statements.
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Group" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as "joint ventures" and "joint operations", respectively. "Joint ventures" and "joint operations" are collectively referred to as "joint arrangements". Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as "associates". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "aim", "ambition", "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect’’, "goals", "intend", "may", "milestones", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "schedule", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this announcement and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, November 2, 2023. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this announcement.
All amounts shown throughout this announcement are unaudited. The numbers presented throughout this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures, due to rounding.
Shell’s Net carbon intensity
Also, in this announcement we may refer to Shell’s “Net Carbon Intensity”, which includes Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the term Shell’s “Net Carbon Intensity” is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.
Shell’s Net-Zero Emissions Target
Shell’s operating plan, outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, they reflect our Scope 1, Scope 2 and Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) targets over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCI target, as these targets are currently outside our planning period. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.
The content of websites referred to in this announcement does not form part of this announcement.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
The financial information presented in this announcement does not constitute statutory accounts within the meaning of section 434(3) of the Companies Act 2006 (“the Act”). Statutory accounts for the year ended December 31, 2022 were published in Shell’s Annual Report and Accounts, a copy of which was delivered to the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales, and in Shell’s Form 20-F. The auditor’s report on those accounts was unqualified, did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditor drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying the report and did not contain a statement under sections 498(2) or 498(3) of the Act.
The information in this announcement does not constitute the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements which are contained in Shell’s third quarter 2023 unaudited results available on www.shell.com/investors.
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