S&P Global Ratings Revises Iceland‘s Outlook to Positive; Affirms at 'A/A-1'
S&P Global Ratings has revised the rating outlook to for Iceland to positive from stable and affirmed Iceland‘s sovereign ratings at A/A-1.
According to S&P, strong ongoing economic recovery from pandemic fallout, alongside continued fiscal consolidation over the next few years, will improve Iceland's public finances beyond S&P‘s previous expectations. S&P expects high domestic demand and the ongoing recovery of tourism to result in real GDP growth of 3.3% this year and an average of 2.4% in 2024-2026. Iceland has effectively managed external pressures, and the country's extensive energy independence has shielded the country from the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict according to the agency. S&P has therefore revised the outlook on Iceland to positive from stable.
The positive outlook reflects S&P‘s view that Iceland's fiscal outlook or its ability to withstand external shocks will continue to improve, potentially beyond S&P‘s expectations, over the next 24 months.
S&P could raise the ratings if Iceland's public finances improved more than anticipated, either via narrower deficits and lower net public debt, or a decrease in the government's contingent liabilities. The ratings could also be raised if S&P considered that the country's ability to withstand external shocks had improved. This could be a result of stronger export growth, with exports becoming more diversified, resulting in a reduction of net external debt, and potential volatility in Iceland's terms of trade.
The outlook could be revised to stable if fiscal or external performance worsened significantly below expectations. Such a scenario would likely coincide with lower-than-expected economic growth. This could stem from, for example, decelerated economic activity in Iceland's main trading partners in Europe or a shift in global travel preferences that hinders the ongoing recovery of the country's tourism sector.To view this piece of content from www.globenewswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.
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